Predicting and adapting the tick threat in agricultural and forest landscapes under climate change

GOALS

The scientific objectives of CLIMATICK are to:

• improve spatial and temporal predictions of Ixodes ricinus and Hyalomma marginatum activity under future climate scenarios
• provide relevant tools and pathways for the dissemination of scientific predictive results and propose appropriate adaptation strategies for tick surveillance, environmental management and tick-borne disease risk prevention under climate change.

Predictive models of tick activity

The general methodology has been to focus on generating bio-ecological knowledge and observational data for the two ticks of interest, in relation to the dynamics of some of their vertebrate hosts, the changes in vegetation and habitat in which hosts and ticks evolve, and the meteorological conditions to which this ecosystem is subject. The development of predictive models made it possible to identify the environmental factors, particularly meteorological and climatic, influencing these dynamics and to provide predictions.

As a result of the observations (field and experiments) and predictive models, I. ricinus is considered to be a typically temperate tick (thriving in humid and cool conditions) and H. marginatum a typically Mediterranean tick (preferring hot and dry conditions). However, they can coexist on the fringes of the Mediterranean climate as long as they each find a favourable habitat. Humidity seems to be the main constraint to their survival. However, in I. ricinus, different seasonal dynamics are observed between climatic zones, this time underpinned by humidity but also temperature.

Co-constructing management and adaptation strategies for the 'tick' risk

In parallel, an inventory of perceptions of the "tick risk" was carried out in order to identify the best ways and means of disseminating knowledge and raising awareness about prevention. Participatory science tools were tested to encourage the co-construction of management and/or adaptation strategies.

In terms of prevention, the public (general population or targeted socio-professionals) is aware of the risk linked to ticks as well as some preventive measures, but remains very poorly informed about the bio-ecology of ticks, locally on its territory, which can sometimes lead to inappropriate actions. However, as long as this information is provided in a non-anxiety-provoking way, people manage to change their behaviour and come up with innovative prevention and/or adaptation measures, depending on the local situation. We show that providing tools for reflection (knowledge, educational games like GOTICKS, etc.) rather than ready-made strategies is more profitable and evolutionary.