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The pig industry needs realistic projections of the potential impact of climate change on the functioning, profitability and environmental performance of pig farms in order to anticipate and adapt. Simulating the impacts of climate disruption, as well as the cost/benefit ratio of adaptation strategies under different climatic and socio-economic contexts, is a key factor in informing the choices farmers will have to make to reduce the economic vulnerability and environmental footprint of their farms.

This thesis seeks to answer the following question: how will climate change and adaptation strategies modify the vulnerability and environmental impact of pig farms? To answer this question, the thesis proposal aims to 1/ develop and validate a model capable of simulating the consequences of future climate disturbances on the economic and environmental performance of a breeder-fattener pig farm, 2/ use this model to carry out vulnerability diagnoses on French commercial farms by simulating the responses of the farm under different climatic and socio-economic scenarios, and 3/ simulate the economic and environmental consequences of several adaptation strategies aimed at limiting the vulnerability of pig farms to climate change.